Go Back   This Blue Marble, a Global Current Events Discussion Forum > Health and Medicine > Flu Clinic > Flu Discussion

Flu Discussion This subroom is intended for "soft discussion" of flu-related topics. This includes general chat, joke threads, scenarios, discussions of personal feelings, etc.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-08-2017, 07:09 PM   #26
andy
Senior Level 5
 
andy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Gainesville, Florida
Posts: 5,603
Thanks: 640
Thanked 1,234 Times in 662 Posts
Hey gsgs, I wonder if the increase in deaths might be an offshoot of a vigorous election year. I wonder what the Bush/Gore year was like?
__________________
Backing off on the tranqs..... petting puppies instead!
andy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-08-2017, 08:09 PM   #27
CanadaSue
SuperModerator
 
CanadaSue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: In my gardens or online
Posts: 35,549
Blog Entries: 28
Thanks: 2,503
Thanked 11,134 Times in 5,079 Posts
The leading edge of boomers hit 70 this year. As this cohort, (seniors), swells over the next decade or so, I expect to see a steady increase in all age related causes of death - the cancers, cardiovascular issues...are the most obvious.

In another 10-15 years, we'll be seeing - on top of what I've already mentioned, increased falls leading to hospitalizations that don't end until the patient succumbs to complications.

Gonna get ugly because in spite of KNOWING since they were born we were seeing a huge boomer cohort that would eventually lead to heavy demands on the health care systems... we've done nothing to prepare.
__________________
Searching for a dream to run after & catch!
CanadaSue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2017, 03:00 AM   #28
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
I never read about the idea, that elections might have an effect on deathrates.
But I remember, that holidays had an effect, deathrates are highest on Jan1 , (afair)
--------------------
the "boomers" are best seen in birth-statistics, or population counts by age.
I must have a chart somewhere... In the death statistics we usually have deathrates,
deaths per 100000 population or even age-adjusted deathrates, where this is cancelled out.
I'll see later how much the deathrate changed, how much of these additional
80000 deaths in 2015 are due to population effects (boomers)

HMD has the 2015 mortality data not yet,
but population data are already there
http://www.mortality.org/cgi-bin/hmd...tr=USA&level=1
USA age-structure , females, 2005,2010,2015 : http://magictour.free.fr/usaage.GIF
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers

1948-1971, peak in 1961
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 01-09-2017 at 09:39 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2017, 11:33 AM   #29
CanadaSue
SuperModerator
 
CanadaSue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: In my gardens or online
Posts: 35,549
Blog Entries: 28
Thanks: 2,503
Thanked 11,134 Times in 5,079 Posts
gsgs - the sheer numbers of deaths will go up but yes, it will be interesting to see how the rates of certain types of deaths are affected.
__________________
Searching for a dream to run after & catch!
CanadaSue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2017, 01:13 PM   #30
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
I had a stupid typo in the charting program, so there was an error.
It's corrected now, see above.


we are at a critical point. Death rates from circulatory causes have found
a bottom and are maybe starting to increase again.
And these trends may last decades, as seen in the past.
2016 preliminary data and data from other countries however
are encouraging, so this is not certain yet.

---------edit-----------------
there was also an unusually big increase of deaths in England in 2015,
see the MMWS thread.
here an analysis:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...tions/2015/pdf

they attribute it to Dementia/Alzheimer’s and respiratory disease

two other countries with 2015 data : (all causes)

Finland deathrate decreased
Belgium deathrate increased, but looks not so unusual

http://magictour.free.fr/FINR3.GIF

------------------edit 2017/01/12-------------------
the trend-change (since 2013,2014) is best seen in age-adjusted
circulatory death rates from non-hispanic white females
living is South USA
---------------
nothing yet in IN,KY,VA,SD,NM,WA
increase only first seen in 2015 in
NY,CA,NJ,CT,MA,RI,OH,WI,NE,NC,MS,AR,AZ,NV,OR
since 2011 in Utah
-------------------edit 2017/01/16--------------------------------------
checking monthly European deaths at
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/estat-n..._mmonth.tsv.gz

BG,DK,HR,HU,IS,UK may have increasing summer deaths, but most available summer-2015
estimates show no increase

AT,BE,FI,HU,LT,LU,LV,MK,MT,NL,PL,PT,RO,SE,SK,TR,UA ,

http://magictour.free.fr/eu17a-.gif

increase since 2005 , but these are total deaths, not deathrates and not age-adjusted

-------------edit 2017/01/17----------------------
WHO has an update from Dec.2016 here:

http://apps.who.int/healthinfo/stati...ality/whodpms/
(doesn't work correctly for some browsers)
more links in this thread : http://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=60892


11 countries with data from 2015 already plus USA

charts for 80 countries, all causes and circulatory age-adjusted
death-rates 1979-2015 here:
http://magictour.free.fr/aa2015.GIF

remarkable the recent decline of circulatory deaths in Kazakhstan

=========================================
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25745082

Eur J Public Health. 2015 Oct;25(5):890-4. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckv019.
Epub 2015 Mar 4.
Regional differences in cardiovascular mortality in Kazakhstan: further
evidence for the 'Russian mortality paradox'?

Previous research in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan has found that ethnic
Russians have higher adult mortality rates than native ethnic groups,
despite their higher socio-economic status. This has been termed the
'Russian mortality paradox'.

cited by 3

-------------------------------------------
Results and discussion. The decline in mortality from all
causes was pronounced in the younger age groups. The greatest

Conclusion. Our analysis of age-specific mortality is an evidence
in favor of the reduction of mortality in Kazakhstan in 2007-2013
mainly due to the changes in population behavior. At the same time,
no significant reduction in older age groups’ mortality indicates a lack
of medical care in the country

-----------------------------------------------------

Similar articles
Ethnic differences in all-cause mortality rates in Kazakhstan.[Public Health. 2016]
Ethnicity, Russification, and Excess Mortality in Kazakhstan.[Vienna Yearb Popul Res. 2013]
[Current malaria situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan].[Med Parazitol (Mosk). 2001]
Review Alcohol Consumption in Demographic Subpopulations: An Epidemiologic Overview.[Alcohol Res. 2016

[{ they should examine TMAO and gut bacteria, these may differ
by ethnicity and decade , migration, population mixing,
bacteria from food, i.e. (mother-?)milk, availability of foods corresponding
to birth of decined mortality}]

==============================================
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 01-26-2017 at 11:32 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2017, 01:18 PM   #31
CanadaSue
SuperModerator
 
CanadaSue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: In my gardens or online
Posts: 35,549
Blog Entries: 28
Thanks: 2,503
Thanked 11,134 Times in 5,079 Posts
Thanx gs - I'd expect the sheer number of deaths from cardiovascular issues to increase in those countries with a baby boom but if the RATE increases... bears looking at.
__________________
Searching for a dream to run after & catch!
CanadaSue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2017, 10:46 AM   #32
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
Germany 2015 is available:
http://www.gbe-bund.de/oowa921-insta...p_aid=84016667

[I wonder, what all they encode in these long URLs]

6.5% (!) increase of deaths in 2015 (2.8% decrease in 2014)
But age-adjusted the increase in 2015 is lower than the decrease in 2014

I don't know why . The severe flu-season has contributed,
unfortunately we have no deaths by month and cause
.
especially inf,met(diabetes),psy(dementia),ner,res,ske
were decreased in 2014
and increased in 2015 , not can,unn

http://magictour.free.fr/DE2015A.GIF
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 01-20-2017 at 11:14 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2017, 01:44 PM   #33
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
deaths in 35 European Countries, 2011-2015 normed by max.


the increase in 2015 could be partly due to the severe
flu-wave in early 2015


http://magictour.free.fr/EU15D.GIF

data from UNO demographic yearbook
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demograph...yb/dyb2015.htm
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 02-06-2017 at 01:56 PM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2017, 01:58 AM   #34
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
1190 google hits for
http://www.who.int/healthinfo/statis...ty_rawdata/en/
on 2017/03/04. 31 for the last year. Zero hits at google scholar.
84 hits, if I add "circulatory" , none if I add "tmao" (except the very WHO-pages)
-------------------------------------------
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4045191/
Int J Cardiol. 2014 Jun 15; 174(2): 293–298.
2014 Global geographic analysis of mortality from ischaemic heart disease by country,
age and income: Statistics from World Health Organisation and United Nations
With a cartogram for 2010 here : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art.../figure/f0005/
cited by 41 : http://scholar.google.de/scholar?cit... dt=0,5&hl=de

Increasing Mortality from Ischemic Heart Disease in China from 2004–2010: Disproportionate
Rise in Rural Areas and Elderly Subjects. 438 Million Person-Years …

PDF Ischemic Heart Diseases in ASEAN Countries: Comparative Morbidity and
Mortality, and Relationship to Economic Development
[ Increasing in Indonesia and Philippine.]

Lower childhood IQ is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events in adulthood

Difference in Leukocyte Composition between Women before and after Menopausal Age,
and Distinct Sexual Dimorphism

---------------------------------------------
CHD increasing in China, data from
Official national-level data on annual IHD mortality rates were extracted from the
Chinese Health Statistical Annual Report (1987–2001) and the Chinese Health
Statistics Yearbook (2003–2013).
http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/1/50/htm
http://science.xingxingkeji.net/prev...2/ytskkxy.html [not by agegroups)
China statistical yearbook at http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2010/indexeh.htm
gives a deficit of 6177K male and 8280K females from 2009 to 2014 , age 50-54
That suggests more female deaths than male deaths in that agegroup,
which is very unusual.
But UNO demographic yesrbook gives a ratio of ~2 suggesting that lots of female
did emigrate or lots of males immigrate. Or many dead males don't register (50-54y)
or population estimates are unreliable or females cheat with their age or ...
China submits deaths by agegroup to UNO (but not WHO ?) but they are not in
the statistical yearbooks ?!
-----------------------------------------------
LIFE TABLES FOR 191 COUNTRIES: DATA, METHODS AND RESULTS
(1999)
--------------------------------------

most of all those papers and researches only use a small subset of this WHO-data,
typically only a few years, only one country, only one disease - not very suitable
to draw conclusions, you have to look at the whole picture.

-----------------------------------------------------------

WHO has life-tables 2000-2015 by age5-group
for 190 countries here :
http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.60980?lang=en
presumably somehow estimated (how?) since most data is missing
downloading takes 2-3 hours ...

http://magictour.free.fr/life_g.GIF

male-female widening in (suggesting increasing CHD)
Algeria,Cabo Verde,Djibouti,Egypt,Ethiopia,Liberia,Morocco,Sene gal,Sudan
Botswana,Guinea,Kenya,Lesotho,Malawi,Namibia,Tanza nia,Zambia
Barbados,Cuba,Grenada,Mexico
Chile,
Bahrain,Kuwait,Pakistan,UAE
BanglaDesh,Cambodia,China,Mongolia,Thailand
Indonesia,Malaysia,
Fiji,Tonga

---------------------------------------------
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 03-05-2017 at 12:25 PM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
mortality, statistics

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:36 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright © Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.