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Old 03-09-2010, 06:42 PM   #1
statusquobuster
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Exclamation Runaway Toyotas

Understanding Toyota Sudden Acceleration

Joel S. Hirschhorn
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As a materials and manufacturing engineer with decades of experience with failure analysis of manufactured products, and as an owner of a Toyota vehicle, I am saddened by the lack of expertise and insight shared with Congress and the public about the sudden acceleration problem.

When products fail due to a systemic design, materials or manufacturing flaw, large and statistically significant levels of problems emerge fairly rapidly. This is definitely not the case with the Toyota problem. With many millions of Toyota models on which even more millions of miles have been driven, if there had been an inherent materials or manufacturing design defect, then we would have seen untold thousands of cases of sudden acceleration. It literally would have been virtually a daily event happening all over the country in many Toyota models. But, in fact, little more than 1,000 Toyota and Lexus owners have reported since 2001 that their vehicles suddenly accelerated on their own. This is a tiny, minuscule percentage of Toyotas.

This infrequent runaway car problem is not analogous to a serious case of bacterial contamination of a major food product causing many thousands of cases of food poisoning in a relatively short period. It is even more difficult to find the cause of.

Understanding this nature of defects also means that the so-called solutions of replacing floor mats and gas pedals are sheer nonsense. Indeed, it did not surprise me to read today that there have already been cases of sudden acceleration in cars that had received fixes by Toyota. More than 60 Toyota owners have complained to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration about cars already repaired under the two major Toyota recalls, saying they aren't fixed and their throttles can still race out of control.

While recognizing the agony and suffering of sudden acceleration accidents and deaths it is also necessary to appreciate the statistically rare occurrences of this problem. Only by doing so is it possible to understand that the ultimate explanation – and solution – to the sudden acceleration problem will be a non-systemic flaw or defect in a critical component. In other words, either a random defect in a material or some unusual and infrequent deviation in a manufacturing process of some critical component. Only such a situation can logically explain so few sudden acceleration problems in so many millions of cars being operated for many more millions of hours and miles.

In my professional opinion, the likely scenario is a defect in a semiconductor chip used in the electronic control system. A defect that was caused by some infrequent flaw in a raw material or manufacturing process that would not show up in routine quality control testing of raw materials or components. That so many different Toyota models over many years have been found defective signifies the likelihood of a particular problem component made in a specific factory that has been used for quite a while. Moreover, the defect obviously does not ordinarily impair vehicle performance but only manifests itself under some infrequent conditions, as yet undetermined.

Rita Taylor of Fort Worth, Texas experienced runaway acceleration, took her car to a Toyota dealer, and had the floor mats removed. A few months later she had another frightening runaway episode. Ditto for Eric Weiss in California, who also had a second episode months after the first one and after removing the mats. Others who have not died and kept using their Toyotas have also had repeat events. Thus, perfectly normal vehicle performance is possible between runaway events.

Make no mistake, the precise cause of such a sporadic event is incredibly difficult to pin down and even more difficult to remedy. An extremely intense and costly investigation is necessary. It is the classic needle-in-the-haystack problem.

If my thinking is correct, then it is sheer folly to believe that replacing floor mats or gas pedals can solve the sudden acceleration problem. However, there is one aspect to the sudden acceleration problem that also is crystal clear and, in some ways, even more aggravating than the acceleration problem. This is the absence of an override system that absolutely prevents fuel being fed to the engine when brakes are employed while a car is accelerating. It is gratifying that the federal government is seriously considering requiring such an override system in all vehicles. An effective override system might, in the long run, be a faster and more cost-effective solution than chasing-the-defect strategy, especially for retrofitting many millions of vehicles.
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Alternatively, finding the cause of the sudden acceleration problem requires a standard failure analysis methodology, namely to obtain absolutely every Toyota vehicle that has experienced sudden acceleration. Then meticulously examine through microscopic and other types of analysis and testing all critical components of the electronic system (called by Toyota the Electronic Throttle Control System with intelligence). Think of it like an autopsy.

This does not appear to have been done. To the contrary, the firm hired by Toyota tested several ordinary vehicles and components. One of the primary authors of the Exponent report said they did not examine any vehicles or components that had the unintended accelerations. This makes no sense whatsoever if the defect is rare and, therefore, its finding that there was nothing wrong was meaningless. Worse, it was a deception and distraction.

[The author has a Ph.D. in Materials Engineering and was formerly a full professor of metallurgical engineering at the University of Wisconsin, Madison and a consultant for many corporations, such as IBM, Texas Instruments, Polaroid, and RayOVac, and has served as an expert witness in many legal proceedings. He was a senior official at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the National Governors Association and is the author of several nonfiction books and hundreds of articles.]

Last edited by flourbug; 03-10-2010 at 08:24 AM. Reason: post is original, by author.
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Old 03-09-2010, 07:46 PM   #2
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Stuck accelerators are a concern but certainly not the big national media extravanganca that is going on now. First of all, a driver only needs to press hard on the brakes to stop a car with stuck accelerator going down the highway. One could also put the car in neutral, then use the brakes, move to the side of the road and turn the car off. Isn't is amazing that almost no news stories say anything about this. Seems to me that a driver that can find the motivation to dial a cell phone and report a runaway car would have a thought of pressing on the brakes.

The fact is this story is being driven by the labor unions, other socialist organizations and the Obamarama to take down Toyota as revenge for closing a plant in California and establishing other plants in right-to-work states like Texas. It is the same gangster behavior we have seen for some time now.

Story and Timeline of Toyota Takedown

I don't feel sorry for Toyota because the Japanese have been doing much worse to American car makers for decades but I do feel bad for America when the thugs have so much power in our country.

Read the article!
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Old 03-09-2010, 07:56 PM   #3
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drive by wire was a great idea. Lets prevent the user from having direct access to the accelerator!

Next was the great idea of not having a fail safe. In a VW (and many other brands), hitting the brake at the same time as the throttle (after a few seconds) will result with the throttle being cut.

I would say shifting into neutral is also just as easy, but I have a feeling if one did a poll in America, we'd see 40% or more of the population who has never used it. In a country where more cars are MT than AT, I bet there would be less deaths.


Meanwhile, this isn't a new toyota issue. It just shows what kind of hysteria the media can still drum up.
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Old 03-09-2010, 07:59 PM   #4
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btw:

Owners say Toyota throttle fix not working.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35690247/ns/business-autos/
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Old 03-10-2010, 10:28 AM   #5
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All this "I am going to die" stuff is bullstuff. How hard is it to put the car in neutral?
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Old 03-10-2010, 11:37 PM   #6
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Reports on the TV from the recent Prius runaway event says that the owner was afraid that shifting into neutral would cause a wreck. IIRC, afraid that the car would "spin out of control", but that might just be my fuzzy memory. Something along those lines, anyway.
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Old 03-11-2010, 05:49 AM   #7
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It is my guess the most drivers of automatic cars don't think/understand about changing gears. Most have only used Drive, Park and Reverse. Someone who drives a stick shift would probably instinctively pull the gear out.
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Old 03-11-2010, 10:18 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mama Alanna View Post
Reports on the TV from the recent Prius runaway event says that the owner was afraid that shifting into neutral would cause a wreck. IIRC, afraid that the car would "spin out of control", but that might just be my fuzzy memory. Something along those lines, anyway.
I don't get people today.

If it was "out of control" and I was "afraid they were going to die" and I didn't have the presence of mind to put it in neutral or work down the gears I am just going to jam it it park.

[email protected] the transmission.
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Old 03-11-2010, 11:20 AM   #9
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Seems to me that a driver that can find the motivation to dial a cell phone and report a runaway car would have a thought of pressing on the brakes.
This is the problem with much of the country. People are so conditioned to calling the government for help. Rather than actually doing something they think that their cell phone empowers them. When all they are really doing with that cell phone to their head is showing how powerless they are to protect themselves.

If my truck ran away and the breaks, keys, or transmission failed to slow it I'd be looking for the first reasonable place to drive off the road.

Last thing I'd be doing is calling 911 to help me stop the vehicle I was driving. I don't think I'd even have time to grab my phone before I decided to ditch it.

I wonder how many people who saw the cruiser stop the Prius now think that dialing 911 and waiting for a cruiser is the proper way of handling this now?
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Old 03-11-2010, 11:52 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dyrt View Post
Stuck accelerators are a concern but certainly not the big national media extravanganca that is going on now. First of all, a driver only needs to press hard on the brakes to stop a car with stuck accelerator going down the highway. One could also put the car in neutral, then use the brakes, move to the side of the road and turn the car off. Isn't is amazing that almost no news stories say anything about this. Seems to me that a driver that can find the motivation to dial a cell phone and report a runaway car would have a thought of pressing on the brakes.

The fact is this story is being driven by the labor unions, other socialist organizations and the Obamarama to take down Toyota as revenge for closing a plant in California and establishing other plants in right-to-work states like Texas. It is the same gangster behavior we have seen for some time now.

Story and Timeline of Toyota Takedown

I don't feel sorry for Toyota because the Japanese have been doing much worse to American car makers for decades but I do feel bad for America when the thugs have so much power in our country.

Read the article!
That was a good article. Too bad they closed NUMMI though.

It allowed US automakers to have the same quality as the Japanese brands. I have a Pontiac Vibe from NUMMI. Well built, high quality, and a good value.
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Old 03-11-2010, 03:08 PM   #11
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I have driven a car with a stuck accelerator (not a Toyota, not that it makes any difference), and I didn't think it was a big deal at the time. The vehicle in question happened to have a manual transmission, which made things a bit easier--I just rode the clutch and kept a foot on the brake. When I got home, I got it unstuck.

In addition to using the brakes (which would eventually fail under the load of the engine), I could put a vehicle in neutral, or shut off the ignition. Those are the only ways I can think of to stop a car. In some of these cases, perhaps the operators failed to avail themselves of these. If so, then it was their fault.

But in some of the cases, my understanding is that these options were not available, becuase those functions were also controlled by the computer. If the shift lever is a direct mechanical link to the transmission, then it can always be used to remove power. And if the ignition switch is an actual switch that directly disables the ignition, then it can always be used to shut off the engine.

But cars have gotten too smart, and in some cases (not just Toyota), these controls do not operate directly. They are an input to the computer, and the computer then acts based upon that input. For example, in one of my vehicles, the turn signal switch is not a switch. It is a variable resistor with three possible values. Based upon the signal sent by that sensor, the computer then decides which lights to turn on. For something simple, this is not a big deal. But it can malfunction, and has.

In the case of the Highway Patrol officer who was killed some time back, he was unable to turn off the ignition, because there was no ignition switch. Instead, there was an input to the computer, and to shut off the ignition while in motion required holding this button down for a few seconds. He was unaware of this, and either did not hold it down long enough, or else it did not work. I'm not sure why he didn't shift it into neutral, but I suspect this was made either impossible or difficult. After all, normally, it is dangerous and illegal to put your car in neutral at high speed. So they made the car smart enough so that it was impossible to perform this "unsafe" procedure. If he had been able to do this unsafe thing, then he probably wouldn't have been killed.

A stuck accelerator is not a big deal, in my opinion. In fact, it's the kind of thing that's almost inevitable if the car stays on the road long enough. But every car should have some method(s) to disable the vehicle, which are both independent of the computer, and intuitive to the average driver.
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Old 03-11-2010, 03:49 PM   #12
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I wonder how many people who saw the cruiser stop the Prius now think that dialing 911 and waiting for a cruiser is the proper way of handling this now?

Good point, Just like the people who get under a hwy overpass for protection from the tornados only to end in the land of OZ.

But with a prius, I don't know how much of the breaking is provided by "regenerative braking" some or most? when accelerating none of that would be available at all.
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Old 03-11-2010, 05:37 PM   #13
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Can someone explain to me why you cannot just shift it into neutral? I don't understand this. Is there something that limits shifting into neutral while the accelerator is engaged?
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Old 03-11-2010, 05:54 PM   #14
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It's easy to armchair quarterback. When you are in panic inducing NEW situations you don't often think clearly - until a few hours later.

If my car was accelerating out of control, I'd immediately write off the car. I do not CARE if it is a total loss. Lives are more important.

Neutral, park, emergency brake, drive in circles, slide the side of the car along a fence or a building to slow it, run it into snow or mud or very soft ground, even sideways along a body of water to get it wet and stall out... whatever works, from the least damaging to 'hope I live through this'.
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Old 03-11-2010, 09:39 PM   #15
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Maybe one of the "run away" Prius was faked?

Driver James Sikes declared bankruptcy in 2008 and is now $700k in debt.

http://jalopnik.com/5491101/did-bank...d-acceleration
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Old 03-12-2010, 01:22 AM   #16
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Something about it does seem stinky to me. Call it intuition.
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Old 03-12-2010, 12:50 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sysiphus View Post
Can someone explain to me why you cannot just shift it into neutral? I don't understand this. Is there something that limits shifting into neutral while the accelerator is engaged?
It's HAL9000

You shift to neutral but the computer does not allow the car to go to neutral. The computer does not care if the stick says N
The car keeps it in drive.

Oh and the new cars with push button start? It takes holding down the button for 3 seconds to shut it off AND HAL can refuse to shut off.


"Sorry Dave. I can't do that"

I don't want a car driven by Hal. I'm going long old clunkers!
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Old 03-12-2010, 01:03 PM   #18
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It's for your own good.

Most of the time, it's dangerous and illegal to shift into neutral when the vehicle is in motion. Most of the time, it's dangerous to shut off the engine when in motion. Therefore, as a safety feature, they have removed these options.

Of course, those would be nice options to have if the throttle ever got stuck. So to solve the problem, they make really good throttles so that there is no possible way whatsoever that they will ever get stuck over the 30 years that the vehicle might be on the road.

You just need to trust them that they thought of every possible scenario that might go wrong. Nothing could possibly go wrong, even in the year 2040, after the car has a million miles on it. It would be dangerous to give the driver direct access to put the car in neutral.
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Old 03-12-2010, 05:57 PM   #19
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Arrow

rc:
Quote:
"Most of the time, it's dangerous and illegal to shift into neutral when the vehicle is in motion."
I do not see how it is dangerous to shift into neutral while the vehicle is in motion, so long as you use common sense.

And I am unaware of any law anywhere in America that makes it illegal to put a vehicle in neutral while it is in motion. Got a link for an example of that?
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Old 03-12-2010, 06:43 PM   #20
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Most of the time, it's dangerous and illegal to shift into neutral when the vehicle is in motion. Most of the time, it's dangerous to shut off the engine when in motion. Therefore, as a safety feature, they have removed these options.

As 06 pointed out, shifting into neutral is not dangerous. You turn the car off, you lose power steering and brakes which is more of a problem. I am still not getting it I guess. I have a late model Honda Accord and I tried shifting it into neutral this morning on the freeway - no problemo. Something is not adding up here.
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Old 03-12-2010, 07:19 PM   #21
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Where your RPM's over 5,000? I've read that is the 'not allowed to shift into N, number"

I've also read for this particular incident, the guy runs an online hook up site.

That doesn't explain the CHP dude who died in the Lexus....
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Old 03-12-2010, 07:39 PM   #22
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I don't doubt what happened to the CHP guy. But this guy sounds suspicious. At a minimum, I suspect he is an attention whore. Or it could be outright fraud. And, no, of course I was not redlined above 5,000 RPM. I am hard enough on my car as it is without doing that kinda stuff.

It seems to me that if recent car models will not allow you to shift into neutral if you are above 5,000RPM, then there are a lot more problems than just the Toyota situation. That's outrageous, and just more evidence of the nanny state we have become. Guess I will get a manual for the next car.
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Old 03-12-2010, 10:05 PM   #23
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I know I have to actively have my foot on the break to put the car in or take it out of park. I don't have to break to slip it from drive to neutral.
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Old 03-12-2010, 11:07 PM   #24
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Old 03-12-2010, 11:47 PM   #25
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gee jason,, bleh,,, that guy sucks. or blows. shit!
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