Go Back   This Blue Marble, a Global Current Events Discussion Forum > Health and Medicine > Flu Clinic > Flu Discussion

Flu Discussion This subroom is intended for "soft discussion" of flu-related topics. This includes general chat, joke threads, scenarios, discussions of personal feelings, etc.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 11-04-2010, 01:24 PM   #1
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
Default mortality statistics

see my thread here:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=154522


is it public ?

else I can copy it here
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2010, 01:44 PM   #2
Samen
unregistered
 
Samen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 6,215
Thanks: 200
Thanked 459 Times in 295 Posts
Its your post just post it here from the original you have on your PC, if you worried about copyright, or copy paste from there, i tried reading the fa there to your right to copy post from your own post in case you dont have a backup on your PC but didint find anything.
Samen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2010, 02:23 PM   #3
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
I wasn't sure whether you could read it without registering there


-----------------------------------------









http://magictour.free.fr/stat/HAWB3.GIF

http://magictour.free.fr/stat/PUER1.GIF

__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 11-09-2010 at 09:55 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2010, 04:06 AM   #4
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
more deaths in Alaska in summer than in winter ?!

maybe people leave Alaska in winter ?
and Florida,Arizona have more people in winter ?

hmm, I could compare with cancer-deaths to figure out
seasonal population fluctuations...

or I could have an error in the data or programs
Hawaii only has 7% winter excess deaths, above it had 9.4
maybe occurence/residence or different period
...wait, I adjusted for days of month above...
summer:May,...,Oct = 184 days
winter:Nov,...,Apr = 181.25 days
so multiply these numbers by 184/181.25


Code:
number in the alphabetical list of states
winter-deaths/summer-deaths
average deaths per year
state name
---------------------------------
  2  0.909990   1850 Alaska
 51  1.012518   3080 Wyoming
 13  1.023299   6873 Idaho
 27  1.033968   6838 Montana
 35  1.040934   5785 North Dakota
 45  1.047046   8759 Utah
 23  1.058728  76341 Michigan
 46  1.061095   4603 Vermont
  9  1.061904   8698 District of Columbia
 30  1.064430   7910 New Hampshire
 42  1.064711   6604 South Dakota
 38  1.065257  22595 Oregon
 20  1.066542  11003 Maine
 24  1.066968  34314 Minnesota
 12  1.070425   5583 Hawaii
  8  1.073411   5353 Delaware
 48  1.074835  33615 Washington
 50  1.076457  41328 Wisconsin
 15  1.077149  49092    Indiana
 33  1.077386 171776 New York
 14  1.077803 102875 Illinois
  6  1.078878  20341 Colorado
 36  1.080540  98799 Ohio
 16  1.086830  27708 Iowa
 28  1.089493  14780 Nebraska
 31  1.090910  66931 New Jersey
 19  1.092472  35683 Louisiana
 21  1.093296  34788 Maryland
 29  1.094187   7505  Nevada
 26  1.095741  51536 Missouri
 32  1.096175   9313 New Mexico
 43  1.096602  44069 Tennessee
  7  1.096623  27013 Connecticut
 22  1.097645  55348 Massachusetts
 39  1.097937 123986 Pennsylvania
  5  1.098474 186957 California
 17  1.098552  21888 Kansas
 49  1.098704  19556 West Virginia
 18  1.098917  33644 Kentucky
 34  1.101081  51809 North Carolina
 40  1.102350   9441 Rhode Island
  4  1.103916  22636 Arkansas
 37  1.104171  27821 Oklahoma
 44  1.104449 111586 Texas
 25  1.105235  23808 Mississippi
 47  1.105825  43309 Virginia
 11  1.111496  47184 Georgia
  1  1.112453  36219 Alabama
 41  1.114287  26126 South Carolina
 10  1.163668 106737 Florida
  3  1.167370  23336 Arizona

since 2005 they no longer give the state and county of death
(except Puerto Rico)
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2010, 02:23 PM   #5
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
Florida with high seasonality of deaths:




what happened in 1974-1976 ?


and Arizona, the other state with particularly high deaths-seasonality:



what happened in ~1980 ?


California, deaths separate by cancer(nonseasonal) and non-cancer(seasonal)
and by gender (males reducing the gap in life expectancy the last decades)



what happened in 1996 ? Sudden reduction in male non-cancer summer-deaths

__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2010, 04:56 AM   #6
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
[do not resize picture automatically]

[/resize]

1975 declining deaths mystery

or how should we call it, so others examing it like me will find it with google ?
1974-1976 decreasing deaths (most in 1975) i.e. summer deaths in the white elderly in USA
almost all states except WV and some others, but maybe not sigificant due to fewer records.

Also in Canada, Mexico ? I don't know.

Not seen in Europe,Japan


--------------------------------------------------------
Canada:

seems that statcan http://www.statcan.gc.ca
doesn't want people like me to examine questions like this.
Seems also that they only have data since 1991.
So, in general, I think that Canadians should resort to the
better and free USA-data which should cover similar populations.

you have to wonder anyway, how someone can claim
copyright on statistical data - just numbers

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright / permission to reproduce
Materials on this website were produced and/or compiled by Statistics Canada for the purpose of providing Canadians with direct access to information about current trends and issues that affect their lives.
The material on this site is covered by the provisions of the Copyright Act, by Canadian laws, policies, regulations, and international agreements. Such provisions serve to identify the information source and, in specific instances, to prohibit reproduction of materials without written permission.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mexico:
1979-2007: http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/mortalidad/index.html
I don't now how to get the data. Registered users only ?

1998-2008:
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def1998.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def1999.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2000.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2001.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2002.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2003.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2004.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2005.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2006.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2007.zip
http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/desca...ip/def2008.zip
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 11-20-2010 at 07:19 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2010, 07:17 AM   #7
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
Canada got it 2 years later ?






data from the

Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA),
and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany).
Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de
(data downloaded on 2010/11/20).
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-21-2010, 03:55 PM   #8
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
I hereby call it the 1975 death decline mystery or short : 75DDM

hmm, can I copyright 75DDM ?

sorry, I had to bump this for the search engines


USA
United States
lower death rate in 1974
lower death rate in 1975
lower death rate in 1974-1976
lower death rate in the elderly in 1974
lower death rate in the elderly in 1975

death rate in 1974 decreased
death rate in 1975 decreased
death rate in 1974 declined
death rate in 1975 declined
deaths in 1975 went down
deaths in 1975 decreased
deaths in 1975 declined
fewer death in 1975
fewer death in 1975
fewer death in 1974-1976
fewer deaths in 1975 in the elderly
low deaths
less deaths in 1974
less deaths in 1975
less deaths in 1974-1976
low deathrate in 1975
low death rate in 1974
low death rate in 1975
low death rate in 1974-1976
1975 declining deaths mystery

low death rate mystery
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-21-2010, 04:12 PM   #9
flourbug
Don't wrestle with a pig. The pig enjoys it and you get muddy.
 
flourbug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: LOL, Florida!
Posts: 25,524
Thanks: 6,393
Thanked 10,692 Times in 4,660 Posts
gsgs, perhaps the gas crisis in 1973 and recession that followed had an effect... fewer people on the road = less traffic accidents, more unemployed = less spread of disease, etc.
flourbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-21-2010, 05:49 PM   #10
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
it was particularly in the elderly >75y and they quit dying
from cardiovascular,pneumonia,diabetes
more in the East, less (~half as much) in California

and not in Europe

and 2 years later in Canada, but not so much


gas crisis was in 1974
also Watergate, Nixon-->Ford
sugar-prices up
inflation, recession
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-22-2010, 04:02 AM   #11
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
OK, google has it :-)
with all the keywords

now let's wait for all the other mortality researchers to find this ...
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2012, 05:49 AM   #12
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
it seems that we have fewer winter-deaths in colder
Northern countries.
That was also observed in the 1918 pandemic, afair.

But this is not static, but may change over the decades
in some of the countries.
See, Italy,Greece,Norway,Sweden
Portugal suffers most from winter
-----------------------------

in USA
Alaska has more summer-deaths than winter deaths.

Florida,Arizona with many winter deaths
vs. Idaho,Michigan,Minnesota,Wyoming,Montana,North Dakota,Utah
with few winter excess deaths
Attached Images
File Type: gif grsd1.GIF (30.1 KB, 2 views)
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 12:44 AM   #13
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23045622
annual flu excess deaths 1998-2009 in HK :111/M (95%CI=[72,146]) (USA:133)
751 (95% CI: 488-990) flu-excess deaths annually, 95% of them in elderly >65y.
53% respiratory 18% cardiovascular.
H3N2 worse than H1N1 or B
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2013, 12:35 PM   #14
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
The Stroke Association has been committed to reducing the incidence and impact of stroke since 1974
The Stroke Association of Southern California (SASC) was founded in 1974.

Trends by socioeconomic status, as measured by educational attainment, indicate a greater reduction
in smoking prevalence among those with some college or a college degree, resulting in a substantial
widening of the gradient across educational strata since 1974.

BISMUTH – Prescribed for diarrhea AND constipation. There have been over one thousand cases of
people harmed by the drug since 1974, many cerebral problems and at least twenty eight deaths.

Funded by the Georgia Legislature since 1974, the Stroke and Heart Attack Prevention Program (SHAPP)
SHAPP provides access to vital stroke and heart attack prevention services for 15,000 medically
indigent Georgians (low-income, uninsured, and under-insured);

Since 1974 there have been improvements in the treatment of, and immunisation against, infectious
diseases. This is reflected in the decline in notification rates of certain diseases such as measles,
scarlet fever and tuberculosis (Table 7.8).

Since 1974, WHO has been actively involved in documenting and reporting on alcohol-
related health issues and problems.

Deaths related to hypertensive cardiovascular disease and to myocardial infarction have
decreased dramatically since 1974, accounting for most of the decrease in cardiovascular
death in this time period. This decrease (at least in localized communities) correlates with
successful control of hypertension. This strong evidence from Veterans Affairs studies and
the epidemiologic data have led to the belief that all patients with a diastolic blood pressure
above 90 mm Hg should be treated, regardless of age.
http://web.squ.edu.om/med-Lib/MED_CD.../030105r00.HTM

Since 1974, the increase of polyunsaturated fats has been blamed for

Since 1974, JFK Johnson Rehabilitation Institute has been helping people

since 1974 and CT scanning technology

outweighs ... who has been taking aspirin since 1974 and wasn't involved in the study.

CoQ10 is destroyed by cholesterol lowering statin drugs. CoQ10 strengthens the heart,
lowers high blood pressure, and prevents and/or treats a wide range of conditions.
There are many studies reporting positive results from the use of CoQ10 for congestive
heart failure. CoQ10 has been an approved drug in Japan for use in congestive heart
failure since 1974. Take 100-300 mg. daily.
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-31-2014, 03:31 AM   #15
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
Otherwise, the most striking feature of the
geographical variations in general mortality, is the correlation between the
male mortality level and the population density gradient from county to county.
Higher mortality rates are found in towns, suburbs and other densely populated
areas than in areas with a scattered population, and the type of habitation is
more decisive than geographic region or climatic conditions. This factor does
not, however, influence the mortality level of females to any great extent.
The population density gradient also holds for malignant neoplasms,
diseases of the respiratory system and for cardiovascular diseases as a whole,
but is most pronounced for arteriosclerotic and degenerative heart diseases,
and in particular for the deaths within the latter categories assigned to
coronary disease (420.1)

[Norway, 1963]
---------------------------------------
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2531034/
-------------------------------------------
There was an increased association between myocardial infarction and tooth extraction
due to dental infection compared with tooth extraction for trauma and other reasons.
------------------------------------
Lise Lund Haheim
----------------------------------------
Attached Images
File Type: jpg norw.jpg (39.7 KB, 1 views)
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 05-31-2014 at 07:15 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-31-2014, 08:06 AM   #16
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
in 1974 the American Heart Association and the American College of
Cardiology gave a guideline that recommended
Aspirin 75–162 mg daily in all patients with coronary artery disease
http://www.ccjm.org/content/80/5/318.full.pdf

this guideline may have been followed more strictly in USA
in 1974-1976 than in other countries, where it presumably came later
and more gradual.
The (US-) research and evidence and trials as still young in 1974

FDA approval in 1985, Nobel Prize in 1982

So is aspirin responsible for what looks to me as the biggest short-term-decline
in 20th century US-mortality ?


but widespread use in heart patients before FDA-approval, is that realistic in USA ?

1980 - FDA approves the use of aspirin after a stroke
1985 - FDA approves aspirin after heart attack

-------------------------------------------

searching the old Bayer buisiness report:
FDA announced unexpectably
on 1985/10/09 that daily Aspirin reduces the risk of a
2nd heart-attack by 20%
They mention a "new era of cardiovascular medicine
starting in 1975" , but not because of Aspirin, but "Adalat" , hmm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcium_channel_blocker
----------------------------------------------------

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2625749/
nifedipine is not recommended for the acute management ofmyocardial
infarction. [so Bayer exaggerated ... as usual]

=========================================

comparing USA and Ontario : picture ont6d.gif
maybe treatment of cardiavascular diseases was just inferior
in USA since 1954 ... until they realized this in 1974 and
changed it. But what treatment exactly was this ?
Attached Images
File Type: gif ont6d.GIF (6.5 KB, 1 views)
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 06-01-2014 at 09:48 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 10:42 PM   #17
Ter
Voluntary Exile
 
Ter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,174
Thanks: 1,426
Thanked 1,955 Times in 687 Posts
Default Causes of Death

The graphs are the easiest to understand and offer insight in the causes of death according to gender and age.

This is my Christmas present to GSGS

http://flowingdata.com/2016/01/05/causes-of-death/
Ter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2016, 04:51 AM   #18
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
he takes the data from wonder.cdc.gov and the graphs are 2005-2014
(I didn't know that they already have 2014 ?! ##).
I couldn't see the charts with AOL/IE or K-melion but it worked
with firefox. It's a nice way to present things ... Well,
norming it to 100% of deaths for each age is
a bit problematic since there are much fewer younger deaths
and some causes are age-dependent like cancer and others are not,
like accidents, suicide.
Now, use the WHO database and do the same for other countries ...
And use more causes and automize it ...
And add time to make it 3d,


at cdc.gov/nchs they do have the data since 1959, more detailed,
and better for your own database and
analysis but it's huge and takes some effort to build.
And every ~10 years they change the coding
of the causes which gives some trouble.


## 2014:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/...ality_Multiple

I'll have to do an update ... (takes hours...)


------------------------------
OK, I made some pics too:
http://magictour.free.fr/YAU1.GIF

2014 update : (this is for agegroup 45-69 only)
http://magictour.free.fr/all14b.GIF

Germany 2014, male and female, 1980-2014, 45-69years:
http://magictour.free.fr/DE_ALL.GIF
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 01-16-2016 at 08:22 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 11:32 AM   #19
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
we do have currently a trend in USA towards higher rural mortality
as compared with urban mortality.
This trend gained speed since ~1990.
See here for an article and a chart:
http://www.dailyyonder.com/the-death...6/01/25/10997/
Until 1960, since at least ~1880 it was typically vice versa:
rural people lived longer in average in the USA.
This may have ended in the North East already in ~1920,
but continued in the South and in the less populated States
until at least 1960.
The current trent is unexplained, they don't know why. (as I have read)
And the previous trend since 1880 is maybe also unexplained,
I don't know. It's not just infectious diseases. High urban killers
were ulcers and cancer and diabetes in the mid 20th century.

Now I was wondering whether this happens also in other parts of
the world, and whether it had maybe something to do with the
coronary heart disease epidemic

Best documented is usually England

=======================================


keywords : RUAC 2004 , RUC2011

There are 32,482 LSOAs in England
and 1,896 in Wales, with an average population of approximately 1,500
people

IMD and WIMD a

Differences in mortality between rural and urban areas in England

Variations in life expectancy between rural and urban areas of England, 2001-07
https://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hsq/h...ly.pdf#page=27

The Rural and Urban Area Classification (RUAC) 2004 and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)
2007 were used to categorise area types at the Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level. Population
and mortality data used were produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

life expectancy was higher in rural areas than in urban areas

In terms of sparsity, there was little difference in life expectancy between densely and less densely
populated localities within rural and urban area

Conclusions
There were clear inequalities in life expectancy between rural and urban areas in England.

[they do not mention the development of the strange rural disadvantage in USA since 1990 !
their analysis is static, we don't know, how the rural mortality advantage in England
changes/changed over time. So, do we have the same effect in Europe or elsewhere as in USA ? ]

-----------------------------------------------------



-----------------------------------------------------------------------
no big rural urban difference in Australia:
Life expectancy (years) for non-Indigenous Australians, by Remoteness Area, 2002-04
Major cities,Inner regional,Outer regional,Remote,Very remote
Males,79.1,77.9,77.2,78.1,78.3,78.6
Females,83.8,83.1,83.0,83.4,84.2,83.6

Source: AIHW National Mortality Database.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
in West Germany there is a small rural advantage, which did not change much
between 1995 and 2006.
In East Germany there was a big urban advantage in 1995 (and probably before)
but they adapted to West-German levels in ~2000.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
rural disadvantage in Russia (2.5 years in life expectancy for males)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rural_...ife_expectancy

Studies show that in many parts of the world life expectancy rates are higher in urban
areas than in rural areas.[1] There is some evidence to suggest that the gap may be
widening in these countries as economic conditions and health education has improved
in urban areas.[9]
Canada, China, but not England
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 06-20-2016 at 09:36 PM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 01:32 PM   #20
Ross
Lifetime Member
 
Ross's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 14,872
Thanks: 5,710
Thanked 6,068 Times in 2,721 Posts
Rural Australians are on average much much poorer than
their urban counter parts . One reason being that housing
is much cheaper , as is rent .

Furthermore many older Australians move to rural areas.
It is crazy in that they are away from medical facilities
when most likely to be in need but they do it anyway .

..
__________________
All paper is a short position on gold . “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”

“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.” ( Noam Chomsky )

‘you can judge a man’s spirit by the amount of truth he can tolerate.’ .... Nietzsche
Ross is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 09:28 PM   #21
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
the healthcare accessibility is one of the arguments which they are using
to explain the current US-trend, the "nonmetropolitan mortality penalty"
http://www.dailyyonder.com/tracing-r...09/09/30/2368/

But, wasn't it valid 100 years ago as well, when they had a
big rural mortality advantage in USA ?

You could adjust for factors like income/wealth, the data is usually known.
They call it "deprivation adjustment", and they did it in that British paper above.
It doesn't explain the current US-trend, nor the 1850-1960 rural advantage.

----------------------------------------------------
this could be a new unexplained trend, starting in USA,
which other countries just get later.
Like the coronary heart disease epidemic.
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 06-20-2016 at 09:44 PM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 10:01 PM   #22
CanadaSue
SuperModerator
 
CanadaSue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: In my gardens or online
Posts: 35,508
Blog Entries: 28
Thanks: 2,486
Thanked 11,047 Times in 5,057 Posts
I'll throw a few thoughts out there but have no data on this issue. I'm wondering if the following might not be some of the factors affecting this gap.

Speaking strictly anecdotally, life in rural areas isn't what it used to be. It used to be, before big agribusiness started buying up anything that was or could be turned to farmland, that there were a number of young & middling aged families able to make a living off the land. They didn't necessarily make a lot of money but enough to pay the bills & keep their lands & farms operating.

IF money was tight, someone in the family could often get jobs to bring in a regular paycheque - be that part time or full time on top of busy farm lives. And if circumstances made it necessary to sell their farm or some land, they could do that & hang on.

In my part of Canada, a comfortable mix of large & mid-sized urban areas & well tended, productive farm areas, the tide has turned. While we're paying an insane amount for food, farmers are barely getting by, if they're managing that. Their operating costs are up but they can't sell crops for what they're worth. Farming has become too hard & many don't have kids willing to follow any family tradition into farming.

In the smaller communities surrounding rich farm regions, the many small enterprises which supported farming & provided employment for those not farming are disappearing. Fewer jobs mean higher social & medical stresses. Young people aren't willing to move to 'the back of beyond' - there may not be schools for their kids at a reasonable distance, no local jobs & commuting to a city job may cost too much in time, fuel & wear on vehicles.

As a result, house prices are dropping & many elderly rural residents are 'stuck' in their homes... can't sell them or if they can, it's for a pittance. Our tiny villages have populations which are aging rapidly & there are fewer rural medical centers or even GPs providing services. If you become acutely & seriously ill, by the time an ambulance can get to you & get you to care, it may be too late for a positive outcome.

Villages are the new methamphetamine metropolises; with all the attending dangers - more addiction among rural folks, more crime & violence between & among different "businesses" making, transporting, selling the stuff.

These might be some of the factors. I think the most important would be lack of timely access to adequate medical care.
__________________
Searching for a dream to run after & catch!
CanadaSue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-22-2016, 10:15 AM   #23
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
When they speak of "rural" they include cities of upto 2500 population, sometimes 10000.
About 25% of the US-population is rural, this is decreasing.
Farm and ranch families comprise just 2 percent of the U.S. population.
The "nonmetropolitan mortality penalty" is mainly from stroke,heart disease,cancer.
80 years ago stroke was not more common in US-cities, but cancer and heart disease was.
The nonmetropolitan mortality penalty problem apparently hasn't crossed the Canadian
border yet, they don't talk about it in Canada. But Cansim doesn't easily provide the
mortality data by urbanicity.
UNO does collect these data and reports them in their
demographic yearbooks, but only few countries report
it and even fewer also have the corresponding population data,
so they can give deathrates.
Poland,Finland,Bulgaria,Australia,New Zealand have the data for some decades.
I don't see such a nonmetropolitan mortality trend there.

Australia has ridiculously high rural deathrates with low urban deathrates,
but this didn't change over time.

here I have it by States for 1968-1998:
http://magictour.free.fr/URBICD9I.GIF

note, how Indiana was spared while Ohio,Michigan,Illinois,Pennsylvania
had it. I don't see the start of the trend in 1990 in that chart,
except GA,MI, . NY is strange with a delay in 1980-1995

----------------------------------------------
Netherlands and Finland are also getting a rural disadvantage since 1990:
hyyp://magictour.free/fr/nlfi1.GIF
------------------------------------------------
Victoria, Australia: https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentra...medcentral.com

Acute CHD age-standardised event rates decreased annually by 2.9 % in metropolitan Victoria
and 1.7 % in regional/remote Victoria.
chronic CHD age-standardised event rates increased annually by 4.8 % in metropolitan Victoria
and 3.1 % in regional/remote Victoria.
age-standardised event rates for regional/remote Victoria were 30.3 % higher for acute CHD
and 55.3 % higher for chronic CHD compared to metropolitan Victoria from 2005 to 2012.

--------------------------------------------------------------
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 06-26-2016 at 11:51 PM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2016, 12:59 PM   #24
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
2015 basic numbers available

Summary
In 2015, a total of 2,712,630 resident deaths were registered
in the United States—86,212 more deaths than in 2014.
From 2014 to 2015, the age-adjusted death rate for the
total population increased 1.2%, and life expectancy at
birth decreased 0.1 year. The age-adjusted death rate
increased for non-Hispanic white males, non-Hispanic
white females, and non-Hispanic black males.
The rate for the total population rose significantly for
the first time since 1999 (1).

The 10 leading causes of death in 2015 remained the same
as in 2014. Age-adjusted death rates increased for eight
leading causes. The only decrease in age-adjusted death
rates among the 10 leading causes of death was for cancer.

----------------------------------------

however, the preliminary quarterly data for 2016
shows a decline again !

http://thisbluemarble.com/showpost.p...36&postcount=9


http://magictour.free.fr/aadr.PNG

http://magictour.free.fr/asdr2.png
http://magictour.free.fr/asdr3.png
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 12-19-2016 at 03:53 PM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to gsgs For This Useful Post:
andy (12-25-2016)
Old 01-08-2017, 06:51 PM   #25
gsgs
searching for truth
 
gsgs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 3,743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 152 Times in 107 Posts
USA 2015 is now available , 2718198 deaths , (+87027=3.3%)
91.4MB compressed, 1337MB uncompressed
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access...ality_Multiple


=====================

2015 update : (this is for agegroup 45-69 only)
http://magictour.free.fr/all15c.GIF

#### there was an error, corrected now########


big changes in 1979 or 1999 are probably due to a
redefinition of diseases. (ICD8-->ICD9,ICD9-->ICD10)


in the agegroup 45-69
-------------------------

the up-trend in deathrates from all causes continued in 2015.
Unusual was the small decline of summer deaths.

Cancer deaths were low in the last months
Diabetes deaths, deaths from nerve-diseases (i.e. Parkinson) are up
they mainly contribute to the small summer decline.
(cold summer in 2015 in USA ?)

up since 2015: all,cir,hea
up since 2014: cer
up since 2012: uro,unn,cog,prc
up since 2010: dia,ulc
up since 2009: psy
up since 2008: res,zir
up since 2007: dig
up since 1998: ner
down since 1989: lc
down since 1991: prc
down since 1969: bro,cas
__________________
a chart says more than 1000 words

Last edited by gsgs; 01-10-2017 at 11:21 AM.
gsgs is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to gsgs For This Useful Post:
andy (01-08-2017)
Reply

Tags
mortality, statistics

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:46 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright © Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.