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Old 09-05-2014, 03:45 PM   #1
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Thumbs up Virology Down Under Site

A most excellent virus site with brilliant info about Ebola & this outbreak!

http://virologydownunder.blogspot.co...2014-west.html
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Old 09-05-2014, 04:23 PM   #2
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Sue, did you mean to post the VDU website? The link you posted is to the WHO SitRep.



The Virology Down Under website is at:

http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/

Just a note: Dr. MacKay states on his blog that anyone is free to use or copy the data and graphics from his website. But he does ask that you credit his name and website, which is only fair, given the excellent work that he's doing.

Dr. Ian McKay
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Old 09-05-2014, 04:27 PM   #3
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Oops - let me correct that.
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Old 09-05-2014, 04:33 PM   #4
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Following Dr. McKay on his twitter feed is even better. Pretty much the best source of concise ebola-related information.
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Old 09-05-2014, 04:35 PM   #5
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I was following Laurie Garret, but then she went off on some Bush Derangement Syndrome stuff and I dropped her. We were ahead of her in news gathering anyway.
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Old 09-05-2014, 04:40 PM   #6
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Helen Branswell is another good Twitter source.

@HelenBranswell
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Old 10-04-2014, 10:44 AM   #7
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looks better now, cases going down (Oct.3)
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Old 10-04-2014, 10:59 AM   #8
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gsgs - you are not following closely. They have come out and said we have stopped counting and testing as it's not worth the time. Read the comments by the WHO in their situation reports.
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Old 10-04-2014, 12:32 PM   #9
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but I'm quoting WHO, that's what WHO says:

going down the 2nd week in a row


normalized weekly number of new cases:
497,518,637,595,1113,1071,917,(1095,2days)

http://www.france24.com/en/20141001-...71487128088013
(also German Spiegel-online)

----------edit-----------------------------
weekly changes of new cases in the last 21 days
Guinea_,158,289,324,312,292,267,(296)
Liberia,866,1037,1186,1456,1707,1639,(1604)
SierraL,331,433,586,653,737,894,(886)
sumof3_,1355,1759,2096,2421,2736,2800,2786
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Old 10-04-2014, 03:36 PM   #10
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From the situation report. It says the situation is DETERIORATING in both countries.

Liberia
The continued fall in the number of reported new cases shown in figure 1 is largely attributable to the sharp drop in the number of confirmed new cases reported from Liberia over the past two weeks. Last week there were no new reported confirmed cases from the capital, Monrovia, which in previous weeks had reported a surge in cases. This week, five new confirmed cases have been reported in Monrovia, but there remains compelling evidence obtained from responders and laboratory staff in the country that there is widespread under-reporting of new cases, and that the situation in Liberia, and in Monrovia in particular, continues to deteriorate.

A large number of suspected new cases (and deaths among suspected cases) have been reported from Liberia over the past week. It is very likely that a substantial proportion of these suspected cases are genuine cases of EVD, and that the reported fall in confirmed cases reflects delays in matching laboratory results with clinical surveillance data. Efforts are being made to urgently address this problem, and it is likely that the figures will be revised upwards in due course. At the present time, the numbers of probable and suspected cases, together with those confirmed, may be a more accurate reflection of case numbers in Liberia. The counties of Bong, Grand Bassa, Margibi and Nimba continue to report high numbers of new cases. There has been little change in the number of new cases reported in Lofa, which borders Gueckedou in Guinea, for the past three weeks, with 38 confirmed and probable cases reported this week.

SIERRA LEONE
Nationally, the situation in Sierra Leone continues to deteriorate, with an increase in the number of new confirmed cases reported over each of the past six weeks. The neighbouring districts of Port Loko, Bombali, and Moyamba, which are adjacent to the capital, Freetown, have now been quarantined after a surge in new cases over the past four weeks. Tonkolili has also reported a rise in the number of new cases this week. By contrast, a very low number of new cases have been reported from Kailahun and Kenema for the past two weeks. These areas had previously reported high levels of transmission. Further investigation will be required to confirm whether this fall is genuine, or a result of under-reporting. At present, the latter appears more likely
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Old 10-04-2014, 03:57 PM   #11
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Why wouldn't ie be deteriorating? The number of beds available for care, staff needed to provide that care & material to use is still well below the actual need. When you look at the projected need - it's beyond frightening. VICE News was in Monrovia recently - a few weeks now, I think but I expect at this time, it's even worse:

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Old 10-05-2014, 12:22 AM   #12
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we are still under the impression of forecasts from Sep.23 with exponential
projections and 1.4M in the headlines.
That trend has been clearly broken.
And it should be mentioned by those newspapers.
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Old 10-05-2014, 01:03 AM   #13
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Ok, fine. Things are clearly better. Your minutes of analysis have convinced me.
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Old 10-05-2014, 01:12 AM   #14
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If the trend has been broken it's broken in a negative way. The WHO is guilty of wishful thinking. I'll believe the people THERE, treating those they can, turning away countless others & watching people die in the streets. I'll believe native Liberians & Sierra Leonians who, with little or not protection are doing this 'impossible' work anyway - because that's what you do when it's your people, your community, your family.

They are ALL saying the same thing - it's getting exponentially worse.

The US Army is facing bigger hurdles than anticipated & that surprised me. Not the bigger hurdles but their assumption that anything there, anything visible, was as it seemed.
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Old 10-05-2014, 02:00 AM   #15
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No trend has been broken. Things have simply gotten so chaotic in the affected areas that they are not able to count anymore. That said, we may have dodged a huge bullet in Nigeria, so at least we have that.
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Old 10-05-2014, 12:06 PM   #16
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week 40, projection from newest numbers (hattip Ronan Kelly)

update Oct.06 , who49c.gif
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File Type: gif who40c.GIF (21.3 KB, 0 views)
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Old 10-05-2014, 12:21 PM   #17
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Here's what doesn't make sense, gsgs. For case numbers to trend downwards, significant improvement in case location, isolation, testing, treatment & burial, hugely increased numbers of trained staff, an enormous rise in care beds, immediate shipments of basic PPE, (most care locations are running out or HAVE run out of masks & gloves, for example), better border controls - all those have to be in place right now or within the next week. That is simply NOT going to happen. The CDC says it won't hapenb, the US military says they can't make it happen that fast, MSF can't make it happen, the nations involved have thrown up their hands in surrender...

There is no factual basis, currently, on which to base this lowering of transmission.
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Old 10-05-2014, 03:32 PM   #18
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Don't waste your time Sue.
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Old 10-06-2014, 08:00 AM   #19
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These dead folks clearly have not heard the news that things are getting better, I blame the media.

Quote:
Sierra Leone records 121 Ebola deaths in a single day

Source: Reuters - Sun, 5 Oct 2014 23:50 GMT
Author: Reuters


FREETOWN, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Sierra Leone recorded 121 deaths from Ebola and scores of new infections in one of the single deadliest days since the disease appeared in the West African country more than four months ago, government health statistics showed on Sunday.

The figures, which covered the period through Saturday, put the total number of deaths at 678, up from 557 the day before. The daily statistics compiled by Sierra Leone's Emergency Operations Centre also showed 81 new cases of the haemorrhagic fever.
http://www.trust.org/item/20141005235057-ntcpo/
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Old 10-06-2014, 08:14 AM   #20
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Rejoice Liberia! Things are looking up! I see sunshine...

Quote:
Ebola: Deaths Hidden As Fear Grips Liberia

Monday, 6th October 2014 03:33

Liberia's few ebola treatment centres are overwhelmed with the sick and dying - with patients sharing beds and the dead laying near the desperately ill.

The country has accounted for more than half of the world's deaths from the latest ebola outbreak in West Africa and despite assurances from the President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf that it is under control, evidence on the ground seen by Sky News appears to suggest otherwise.

Whole communities are gripped with fear about the virus - and terrified citizens prefer to die alone, unaided because of the stigma attached to admitting to the disease.

Dozens of ebola victims are dying in their homes in Monrovia, increasing the chances of the virus spreading.

And official numbers of victims are almost certainly unrepresentative of the real death count because of the lack of coordination and nationwide spread of the disease.

Small teams of about half a dozen workers set out daily to retrieve the ebola dead - most of whom have died after suffering in secret.

Their relatives are reluctant to admit ebola has caused the death, as this invariably invites ostracisation from their communities and targets them as potential virus carriers.

The body recovery squads - still called "burial teams" despite government orders that all ebola victims be cremated - are doing one of the most dangerous jobs in the world.

They take extreme precautions, wearing multiple protective clothing layers along with goggles, boots, gloves and head coverings to try to stay safe.

Head of Team Three, Mark Vayowan, told Sky: "There's no day comes that people don't die in their house. Every day, every blessing day."

There's simply too much work for the recovery teams to do, not enough hours in the day for them to track down the dead.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/ebola-deaths-hi...-liberia-98194
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Old 10-06-2014, 10:43 AM   #21
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I checked Sierra Leone, they have daily situation reports here:
http://health.gov.sl/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/
the deaths were somehow counted too late, the total
cfr had been low
I prefer just counting the cases, or in Sierra Leone the positive tests
which is similar.
One day was missing (Oct.02) and 53 positives listed on Oct.04
are really from Sep.30-Oct.03

So I stay with my analysis above as far as it concerns Sierra Leone.
It doesn't look exponential
despite of what Spiegel-online writes
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Old 10-06-2014, 11:01 AM   #22
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Did you miss the many reports where SL & Liberia are acknowledging, ( supported by WHO & CDC acknowledgements), that not even close to all suspect cases are being tested? There are too many suspect cases to test that are KNOWN. Add to that, the great many cases families don't report, (no point in calling for ambulances that don't exist or are backed up by 4-5 days in calls), because the treatment beds for them don't exist & if they did, 'care' increasingly consists of little other than trying to coax rehydration fluids down the throats of those who can't really swallow.

Data are great - when they're timely & accurate.

In no way do those criteria apply to this outbreak.
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Old 10-06-2014, 01:19 PM   #23
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for watching the trend (i.e. exponential or not) the underreporting is not
important, if the ratio of underreporting is almost constant

counts are also available for administrative regions, 14 in Sierra Leone, 15 in Liberia
with big differences

which region do you think is exponential ?
which is underreporting ?

they won't all start at the same time to underreport

in Sierra Leone they also report how many contacts are checked per day
in each region - ~6 contacts per case


will someone help typing in all the numbers ?
~200 numbers per day for Sierra Leone, ~50 for Liberia


for better surveillance
for the world's health
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Old 10-06-2014, 01:40 PM   #24
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The ratio is not constant, that is the issue. The number of cases has gone past the ability to count effectively. People are being turned away from treatment centers, back into the community to infect others. It's like a piece of analytical equipment where the substance you are detecting has reached the upper detection limit of the machine. It will still read out the max value, but the data is not usable since you are outside the limits of its design.
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Old 10-06-2014, 01:44 PM   #25
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It's off the Scale
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