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Old 10-08-2014, 01:13 PM   #26
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gsgs should give the WHO his findings.

Quote:
WHO: No evidence Ebola being brought under control

There is no evidence the Ebola outbreak in west Africa is being brought under control, the World Health Organisation has said.
The body said the death toll from the disease had risen to 3,879 from 8,033 cases as of 5 October.

Last updated Wed 8 Oct 2014
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-...-west-africa/?
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Old 10-08-2014, 03:13 PM   #27
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the love to be vague,unprecise. "Not under control" can mean anything.
But I think the increase is stopped, it's stable, maybe even slowly going down.

In no way does it look exponential.

There is some re-counting and checking of old records going on,
I have more cases in Liberia but fewer in Sierra Leone in my estimates
based on the daily updates.

the number of weekly new cases (suspected,confirmed and probable together) in all 3 countries
together goes: 633,681,959,917,915,854


maybe WHO has an agenda, maybe they paint the picture worse than they think it is
so to collect more money, I don't know.
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Last edited by gsgs; 10-08-2014 at 04:04 PM. Reason: last number corrected
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Old 10-08-2014, 03:37 PM   #28
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http://time.com/3482193/ebola-cases-8000/?
Quote:
The WHO cites problems gathering data in Liberia, and says it should be emphasized that “the reported fall in the number of new cases in Liberia over the past three weeks is unlikely to be genuine. Rather, it reflects a deterioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data.”
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Old 10-08-2014, 04:15 PM   #29
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yes, but in all 15 regions simultaneously ?
and deteriorating week by week, each week more ?
and by how much ?
I corrected the 228 cases for Liberia to 408 because of one
sudden drop in suspected cases and one missing day.
But otoh their number for sierra Leone seems too high
The additional deaths are explained by correction of
previous permanent underreporting of deaths with
a low CFR

deaths:54,48,38,35,25,257
cases:190,208,249,267,364,485
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Old 10-08-2014, 04:45 PM   #30
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You are now in the process of correcting bad data (some up, some down) to fit your hypothesis.

Are you a climate scientist by any chance??
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:17 AM   #31
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what's my hypothesis ? non-exponential ?

just what you say, you have to go into the details to demonstrate it. Will you ?

Why should I fit it ?
I'm just trying an analysis. The next weeks would show the mistakes anyway

I research influenza, not climate.
I almost ignored ebola until the recent alarming reports (WHO,CDC Sep.23)
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Old 10-09-2014, 06:02 AM   #32
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it's still possible ... but not so likely, IMO

we learned, that it can be contained by strict measures and money
these are going to increase

the numbers from Sierra Leone are still going up (although
probably not exponential) mainly because new regions are
being hit and in the first weeks it increases sharply

Liberia stopped reporting in the last days and if their numbers
are indeed so much off ... (unlikely, IMO)

guines looked stable since

numbers and charts in this thread:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=228449
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Old 10-09-2014, 09:23 AM   #33
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so,...
does Mackay think it's exponential ?

I get evil popups now after visiting his blog for updates
(AOL-->IE,Windows-XP)
signing in to google also gives problems (e.g. at news.google.de)

twitter is slow now for me, presumably because of all the pictures
his twitter-page crashes my browser after "full profile"

so, I'll ask him in pm at ft
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Old 10-09-2014, 09:32 AM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsgs View Post
what's my hypothesis ? non-exponential ?
You have stated things are stable, and could be getting better, regardless of what the agencies who are actually involved in the situation are saying.

Quote:
just what you say, you have to go into the details to demonstrate it. Will you ?
I can't. The data is bad. They have told us repeatedly that the data is bad. When you run an experiment, and you know you have a bad data point (knocked over the beaker, dropped it on the floor, left it in the oven too long, whatever...) you exclude it. You don't exclude things that don't fit, you exclude things that you know are in error.


Quote:
I almost ignored ebola until the recent alarming reports (WHO,CDC Sep.23)
That much is obvious. The alarming reports were enough to get your attention, but now you don't believe them? You are looking too closely at the numbers, without any context.
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Old 10-09-2014, 12:38 PM   #35
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we mustn't drop the data
we must estimate, as good as possible

what did you learn from H5N1 ?
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:10 PM   #36
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other opinions about the latest WHO-numbers:

other opinions about the numbers :


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3212908/posts

https://birdflu666.wordpress.com/201...ed-in-liberia/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...ger-be-ignored

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/163..._.html&page=39


Ban Ki Moon: cases of the disease are “growing exponentially,”

this has just been updated !
http://cpid.iri.columbia.edu/ebola.html

see how Shaman still tries to make the forecast
exponential and how absurd that looks !
Attached Images
File Type: gif shaman1.GIF (5.3 KB, 1 views)
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:22 PM   #37
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What did I learn about H5N1 or SARS or any historic outbreak? That it's not about the data or numbers, although they can serve a purpose as approximate measures. No, it's about BEHAVIOUR, that of people both as individuals & agencies responding to a situation.

Humans could care less about data or trends. They care about staying alive - period. They will do anything, ill advised, ludicrous, counter productive... if they think it will keep them alive.
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:44 PM   #38
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I can't see this thing being controlled if male survivors semen can infect. I don't see these guys using condoms for the months they remain infectious through sex.

It is the next Aids.
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:48 PM   #39
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freepers, zerohedge, ar15.com vs MSF/WHO/CDC/UN?? I rest my case without even opening the links.

I apologize to all for the complete and utter derailment of useful thread. I tried to stop, but I failed. I'm really going to try and cut it off here.
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:49 PM   #40
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you're alone on that.

the experts are looking at the numbers

unfortunately not hard enough, so I couldn't find anyone
who analyses by region/county , only by country
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:51 PM   #41
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ETA: What did I learn from H5N1? When the internets (me included) saw a pandemic behind every dead chicken, these other groups (to my frustration at the time) yawned with mild interest.

Now they are screaming from the rooftop. That has my attention.
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:59 PM   #42
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We have very few recorded cases, (one I think?) of documented transmission through sexual intercourse. Of course we may seen more with this far larger outbreak. I don't think it's the next AIDS.
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