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Old 11-09-2009, 10:21 PM   #26
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If this sucker were going postal in the Ukraine, no amount of official WHO 'silence' could hide that fact for long. And not only would we be seeing a vastly different picture in the Ukraine than we're presently seeing - neighbouring countries would also by now be seeing some scary stuff.

A WHO team, no matter what size, simply can't come into a country & within days give us verifiable & reliable answers. That would be flat out irrespnsible. Lord knows I've got my beefs with WHO but not in this case.

The samples they've obtained & be be continuing to obtain are being sent to Mill Hill, (UK), for analysis - they have to be grown out, gussied up & studied using a number of different methods. Then those results have to be looked at, figured out & compared to other samples of pH1N1 from earlier on in the Ukraine's outbreak as well as other countries. That takes a number of expert eyeballs - intially to tease out answers, then to verify, discuss & agree on a tentative conclusion. And that's going to take more than a couple of days without the presence of neon red flags.

The CLINICAL picture is faster to read & even then, one must be careful. If there are indeed hemorrhagic cases - how many compared to the total known/estimated? Very importantly, WHY a hemorrhagic manifestation? Is the virus doing that all by its lonesome or did the patient have a condition which predisposed him/her to this truly horrendous process? Same applies to something like meningitis - is it a primary manifestation of the virus or did the pateint pick up a secondary? Which one? If more than one case, are we looking at the same causes? Again, any real & huge problems WILL be announced to warn people.

The fatc that we've not heard a whole lot is something I actually think is good. It means there's no evident, immediate reason to sound alarms.
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Old 11-09-2009, 10:25 PM   #27
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Total Destruction of Lungs in Ukraine Fatal H1N1 Cases
Recombinomics Commentary 04:22
November 9, 2009

The symptoms are observed at different stages of disease - a fever with a temperature over 38 C, cough, respiratory disorders. When cough was characterized by negligible allocation phlegm or dry unproductive cough with blotches of blood. All the patients come to hospital on average by 3-7 days of onset, were in serious condition. Period of time from onset to death averaged from 4 to 7 days. In all patients during a hospital for signs of respiratory insufficiency of various degrees, which quickly rose and manifested accelerated respiration rate, shortness of breath and effectiveness of independent breathing. X-ray studies were performed on 1-2 day hospitalization. Most patients experienced a double-headed particles of lower lung lesion, followed by a trend towards total destruction.

The above translation is from an announcement today from the Ukraine Ministry of Health describe 90 fatalities (see map) associated with community acquired pneumonia. The full report included the age distribution, which exactly match distribution reported previously by other countries for swine H1N1. 52/90 fatalities were in the age group of 19-40, followed by 26/90 in the 41-55 age group.

Coughing up blood followed the "total destruction" of lungs again gives a clinical picture of hemorrhagic pneumonia caused by H1N1 swine flu.

However, although the 90 recent fatalities described above are clearly due to H1N1, many reports continue to cite a low number of H1N1 lab confirmed cases, which is more reflective of limited testing than actual cases.

Earlier reports cited pneumonia deaths not associated with the influenza/ARI category and the basis for the classification of approximately half of such deaths into a separate category remains unclear.

The above description of these fatalities increase the need for the immediate release of sequences from H1N1 isolated from the lungs of these fatal cases.

Samples were sent to Mill Hill a week ago and only a minimal description (no "large" changes and no anti-viral resistance) of the sequence data. As the number of reports of sequences with receptor binding domain changes in isolates from lungs of fatal H1N1 cases increase, the need for full and rapid disclosure of sequences from large outbreaks such as the one in Ukraine become a major health care imperative.

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Old 11-09-2009, 10:30 PM   #28
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Old 11-11-2009, 12:38 PM   #29
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189 Deaths Reported in Ukraine - Belarus to 223K Cases
Recombinomics Commentary 21:32
November 10, 2009

1,122,188 Influenza/ARI

57,286 Hospitalized

189 Deaths

The above numbers are from the latest report from Ukraine. Numbers in all categories continue to rise, The two locations with the biggest increases were Kiev (8062 to 76,285) and Kiev Oblast (6,522 to 56,688). These increases indicate the H1N1 is spreading east and the high numbers in the Kiev region may be associated with the jump of cases in the Gomel region in Belarus, with 48,754 cases in influenza/ARI (see map). Belarus also reported 8 fatal pneumonia cases fro the region, and larger numbers of fatalities had been reported earlier for Minsk. For the entire country, Belarus reported 223,349 cases, further supporting the H1N1 spread in the region.

Although the number of fatalities in Belarus is increasing, and may rival Ukraine, samples were sent to Mill Hill from Ukraine at the beginning of the month, and an announcement of sequencing data has been delayed.

The steady increases of H1N1 cases and hemorrhagic pneumonia deaths in Ukraine, as well as similar numbers reported for Belarus, increase concerns about the sequencing delays.

The sequences should be made public immediately.


WHO Appeals to Ukraine for Help with Hemorrhagic Pneumonia
Recombinomics Commentary 13:36
November 11, 2009

WHO experts appealed to Ukrainian physicians requested to report positive experiences in treating patients with severe influenza A/H1N1, so it can be used not only in Ukraine but other countries, the WHO European Region.

The above translation is from a report today by the Ukraine Ministry of Health. It is an appeal for Ukrainian physicians to detail positive outcomes from efforts to deal with the fatal pneumonia cases in Ukraine (see map). Ninety such patients were described earlier. H1N1 infections led to the "total destruction" of both lungs.

This request further highlights the need to release the sequences from these patients. Mill Hill has had the samples for well over a week, and should have had full sequences last week. Recent sequences from fatal cases in Sao Paulo, Brazil had receptor binding changes (D225N and D225G), and there are concerns that these changes or other single nucleotide polymorphisms could significantly affect clinical presentations and outcomes.

Release of H1N1 sequences from Ukraine is long overdue.

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Old 11-11-2009, 02:57 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Sarrah View Post

The codex is a very real thing and it does and will affect every country in the world. Codex has been discussed and in place for years. Step by step. Regulate everything. People cannot be allowed or trusted to make decisions for themselves. Home medicines need control. This is the essence of the treaty.

Codex sets limits and will control all vitamins and minerals used. The countries of the world are about to sign a treaty agreeing to many limits.
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h1n1, mutated, reported, swineflu, ukraine, video

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