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Old 08-11-2017, 08:13 AM   #1
Potemkin
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Default Outcome: War with North Korea

A very good article, from Fox News no less, on the outcome of a war with North Korea.

A war with North Korea would be hell -- And the aftermath even worse

Fact: The United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific would demolish North Korea in any conceivable military scenario. Even if our worst fears are realized, and Kim Jong Un decided to lash out with nuclear weapons, Washington would ensure Pyongyang was turned into atomic ash—what would clearly be the end of the so-called “hermit kingdom”.

But what is lost in our recent conversations of war and peace in Asia today are two key questions: Just how bad would such a conflict be and what happens when the war is over?

Stop and think about it for a second. If we accept the fact that a war fought on the Korean peninsula -- if waged with no nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, which is by no means a certainty—it stands to reason that the number of conventional weapons used by North and South Korea, America and likely Japan or others would flatten large sections of the Korea peninsula. To make matters worse, such carnage would likely spread to the Japanese home islands, U.S. military bases around the region or even Guam, Hawaii or Alaska.

More: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/...ven-worse.html
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Old 08-11-2017, 08:45 AM   #2
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This should go into our "War Room"
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Old 08-12-2017, 09:11 AM   #3
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Quote:
We must also consider what the outside world will think of Korean unification, and that means China. What will Beijing do, seeing a united Korea that would likely be a strong U.S. ally and potentially still hosting U.S. troops in the years to come? While far into the future, a strong, united Korea could be a powerful counterweight to China, and along with Japan, a powerful U.S. friend. How would Beijing react?
That is why USA mongers war, Kim will do nothing but threaten and South Koreans prefer a mutual peace. Samsung will not bow to Apple IMHO.
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Old 08-12-2017, 02:34 PM   #4
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The result needn't be a unified Korea under the American umbrella. North Korea was relatively manageable when it was a Chinese client state. If China wants that buffer, no problem- but their responsibility to set up a less batshit crazy protectorate north of the DMZ. The problem is not the land and the people, it's the regime. North Korea could be comsciously left under the Chinese sphere. Let them Marshal Plan it if they so wish. But under the current regime the Norks must be allowed to develop the capabilities they're seeking to deliver nuclear weapons, and that understanding must underlie everything. The US stands to *gain* nothing from war with the North- it's about preventing losses that could be far, far worse.
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Old 08-14-2017, 08:44 AM   #5
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As I understand it NK has built an extensive tunnel system .

Twenty-five years ago that might have been a massive military advantage
today the benefit is not so clear .

If the USA is using air borne/space borne infra-red technology to map
tunnel entrances and air vents then well place explosives may
bury much of the NK arsenal and supplies before they can be used .

As the cooler NH months arrive so will the effectiveness of IR
discrimination and mapping improve .

.
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Old 08-14-2017, 10:12 AM   #6
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China Bans Coal, Lead, Iron Imports From North Korea

Quote:
China's Ministry of Commerce said that Beijing will halt imports of coal, iron, iron ore and seafood from North Korea starting on Tuesday, cutting an important economic lifeline for the Pyongyang regime, as it implemented a package of sanctions passed by the United Nations Security Council on August 6.

China accounts for roughly 90% of North Korean trade but moved earlier in February to suspend North Korea’s coal imports until the end of the year. Coal normally accounts for about half of North Korea’s exports, but despite the coal ban, overall trade between the two countries remained healthy according to WaPo.
More detail here.

..
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Old 08-14-2017, 11:49 PM   #7
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Realistically, China is much better positioned to coerce North Korean compliance than anyone else due to the strict economic dependence- the Norks need China; China doesn't really need them except as a geographical buffer. I hope the Chinese are seeing the need to act more firmly than they ever have on this.
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Old 08-15-2017, 12:02 AM   #8
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They really need to bring L'il Kim & whoever is encouraging his grandiose verbosity, (at the very least), to heel.

Frankly, daily life is stressful enough for most of us, without worrying about the, (currently remote, I hope), possibility of a major war in the Korean peninsula. No matter how limited any kind of military exchange would be, the toll would be more than a great many of us can claim to have experienced in any way. It is not an experience that I care to have to hoist aboard.

I think anyone in that region, far more heavily invested than most of us, is not in the least inclined to have to experience an armed conflict & the aftermath.
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